By Sajjad Shaukat
In the post-Osama scenario, taking cognisance of the recent major terror-events such as militants’ assault on Pakistan’s naval base, cross-border attack of 500 heavily armed militants who entered Pakistan’s Upper Dir from Afghanistan on May 22, and again targetted the Bajaur Agency on June 16 in wake of intensity of subversive acts and drone strikes in the country, our political experts agree that before leaving Afghanistan, US will shift Afghan war to Pakistan.
Notably, on June 22, Obama confirmed that troops withdrawal from Afghanistan will commence from this July and will be completed in 2014. While referring to Islamabad, Obama elaborated, “we will work with the Pakistani government to root out the cancer of violent extremism…no country is more endangered by the presence of violent extremists.” While ignoring the sovereignty of Pakistan and resolution of the parliament in this respect, Obama repeatedly made it clear, “he was ready to order more assaults against any safe havens” of terrorists in Pakistan.
In fact, under the pretext of Talibanisation of Pakistan and unrest in the country, which has collevtively been created by the American CIA, Indian RAW and Israeli Mossad, as shown by a perennial wave of suicide attacks, bomblasts, targetted killings, assaults on the checkposts of the security forces including support to Baloh separtists, US with the help of its arch anti-Pakistan allies like India and Israel has been destabilising Pakistan, while preparing ground to ‘denculearise’ the latter by propagating in the world that Pakistan’s nuclear weapons are not safe.
While observing the ongoing anti-Pakistan developments, Iran’s President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad disclosed on June 7 that there was “accurate information…Americans are to sabotage Pakistan’s nuclear facilities to find dominance over the country.” While also indicating Zionist regime behind the conspiracy, he elaborated that for this purpose, the US can also use “the United Nations Security Council as tool to exercise pressure on Pakistan and weaken its national integrity.”
In this connection, without bothering for the public backlash in our country, US high officials continue their pressure on Islamabad by emphasising to “do more” against the militants and also take military action against the Haqqani network in North Waziristan.
Taking note of the present critical situation, on June 9, Pakistan’s Chief of the Army Staff Gen. Kayani remarked regarding military operation in North Waziristan, “a well thought out campaign is under no pressure to carry out operations at a particular time…future operations, as and when undertaken, will be with political consensus.” By stressing upon national unity, Kayani especially explained, “any effort to create divisions between important institutions of the country is not in national interest…the people of Pakistan whose support the army has always considered vital for its operations against terrorists.”
Now, strained relations between Washington and Islamabad could be observed from the fact that in the recent past, Pakistan’s civil and military leadership has flatly refused to act upon American undue demands. Knowing the double game of America and its intentions of transferring Afghan war to Pakistan, Islamabad sent home 120 US military trainers.
The fact of the matter is that if Afghan war shifts to Pakistan, it will also envelops India with whom the US signed an agreement of civil nuclear technology in 2008 and wants to counterbalance China by making India super power of Asia. Besides, US and some western countries also have tilt towards New Delhi because they consider it their larger commercial market at the cost of Pakistan which is taken as an obstacle in the way of their nefarious strategic designs.
It is notable that the former Soviet Union which had subjugated the minorities and ethnic groups in various provinces and regions through its military, disintegrated in 1991. Even its atomic weapons could not stop its collapse. Another major cause of its disintegration was that its greater defence expenditure exceeded to the maximum, resulting in economic crises inside the country. In this regard, about a prolonged war in Afghanistan, the former President Gorbachev had declared it as the “bleeding wound.” However, militarisation of the Soviet Union failed in controlling the movements of liberation, launched by various ethnic nationalities. On the other hand, learning no lesson from its previous close friend, India has been acting upon the similar policies in one way or the other.
It is worth-mentioning that under the mask of democracy and secularism, Indian subsequent regimes dominated by politicians from the Hindi heartland—Hindutva (Hindu nationalism) use brutal force ruthlessly against any move to free Assam, Khalistan, Mizoram, Nagaland, Tamil Nadu and Tripura where wars of liberation continue in one or the other form. In the recent past, Maoists intensified their struggle, attacking official installments. In this context, Indian media admitted that Maoists have now entered the cities and states like Andhra Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh, Bihar, Jharkhand, Chhattisgarh and Orissa, expanding their activities against the Indian union.
In case of the Indian-held Kashmir, Indian forces have failed in crushing the freedom movement by employing all the possible tactics of military terrorism such as curfews, crackdowns, sieges, massacre, targeted killings etc. to maintain their alien rule.
Post-Napoleonic era in Europe proves that it is not possible to suppress the wars of liberation through military terrorism. In that respect, Prince Metternich, emperor of the Austro-Hungarian Empire did what he could to subjugate the alien peoples by employing every possible technique of state terrorism. In this regard, Indian historian, Mahajin writes, “Matternich had to admit that he was fighting for a useless cause, and the empire disintegrated, resulting in the independence of Italy, Bulgaria and other states whose secret societies had been waging wars of liberation.”
In the recent past, despite the employment of unlimited atrocities by the President Milosevic, collapse of the former Yugoslavia could not be stopped.
It is mentionable that every entity of South Asia is well-aware that even under the rule of Congress which claims to be a secular party, fundamentalist parties like BJP, RSS, VHP, Shev Sina and Bajrang Dal have missed no opportunity to communalise national politics of India. Although violence against the other communities has been used by Hindu fundamentalists as a normal practice since partition, yet anti-Christian and anti-Muslim bloodshed in the last decade coupled with the dissemination of Hindutva has increased. Besides previous genocide of Muslims and destruction of the Babri Mosque, more than 2500 Muslims were massacred in 2002 in the BJP-ruled Indian state of Gujarat. On September 13, 2008, the communal riots in Uttar Pradesh killed more than 200 Muslims. In one of the most tragic incident in Assam, Hindu extremists burnt alive six members of a Muslim family. Similarly, assaults on Christians and their property have continued by the Hindu mobs in Orissa, Assam, Kerala and Andhra Pradesh, killing a number of innocent Christians. Other minorities of India are also target of Hindu terrorism.
Besides, provincial and regional disparities have been widening in India day by day as majority of Indian people is living below the poverty level, lacking basic facilities like fresh food and clean water.
In these terms, while weakening Pakistan as part of their unfinished agenda, US-led New Delhi should realise the fact that non-state actors, popularly called militants have connections with each other from Afghanistan to India and the Indian occupied Kashmir to Central Asian Republics.
History proves that turmoil in any area affects other countries of that particular region. Past and present history of Balkan gives ample evidence that insurgency and movement of separatism in one country have drastic impact on other neighbouring states. For example, World War 1 was initially a local issue between the two tiny states of the region, but very soon it enveloped the major European states including the US, Japan and Turkey. Similarly civil war and unrest either in Somalia or Sudan has been affecting all the states of Darfur region, while recent violent uprising in Tunis, Egypt, Syria, Libya etc. radicalised a number of the Middle East countries.
Consequently, America must know that if after departing from Afghanistan, it entangles Pakistan in an allout war with the Taliban and Al Qaeda-related fighters, ultimately, Afghan war will shift to India, jeopardizing American regional and global interests. So a stable Pakistan is in the interest India, America and Europe.
Sajjad Shaukat writes on international affairs and is author of the book: US vs Islamic Militants, Invisible Balance of Power: Dangerous Shift in International Relations